NFL

Jets -3.5 over Dolphins (loss)
Rotation #456 / 1:00 PM ET

The Jets are one of the most heavily backed public wagers on the board today, and while that can be concerning, New York is by far the better team from top to bottom. Miami lacks a reliable ground attack with De’Von Achane on injured reserve and has limited wide receiver options. Malik Willis has yet to prove he can consistently play mistake-free football for 60 minutes. The Dolphins have a young, inexperienced defense with limited depth and little proven talent at every level. The Jets have slowly been getting their receivers back and now have legitimate downfield weapons. New York’s offensive line has a size advantage today, which should open running lanes and give Geno Smith more time to throw. Smith is a much better quarterback when he has multiple weapons. The Jets played well in New England last week, and you could argue they were the better team. New York should be able to take control and pull away over four quarters. Take the Jets.

NFL
Texans -10 over Giants (loss)
Texans/Giants OVER 42.5 (win)
Rotation #460 / 1:00 PM ET

The Texans have won two straight games after their disastrous 0-4 start. Houston can get right back into the mix with a win this afternoon, something that seemed far out of reach just three weeks ago. The Giants will start newly acquired quarterback J.J. McCarthy today. It has been a strange week for New York, as the team released Najee Harris after giving Cam Skattebo limited playing time last week. McCarthy can make plays outside the pocket, but the team brought him in to stretch the field through the air and help put points on the board. Houston is excited to have Tank Dell back and is looking forward to adding Marvin Harrison Jr. to stretch the field alongside Nico Collins. The Texans will lean on Woody Marks in the running game, letting C.J. Stroud look downfield. It will be difficult for the Giants to put together a complete game with a new quarterback still learning the playbook, especially on the road. Houston has the weapons to create explosive plays, and New York should have opportunities to contribute to the scoring as well. Take the Texans -10 and the OVER 42.5. Straight bets only. No parlays.

NFL
Broncos -4.5 over Cardinals (win)
Rotation #467 / 4:05 PM ET

The Broncos’ offensive shortcomings are no secret, yet the oddsmakers still make them a sizable road favorite over a Cardinals team that just beat the Rams on the road. Arizona has improved, but I still don’t trust its running game, and it is a tough ask for Tyler Allgeier to carry the load as the featured back with Jeremiyah Love still out. The Cardinals are also missing a few opening-day offensive linemen, which should let Denver’s defense control the line of scrimmage. The Broncos get Jonathan Cooper back today and are getting healthier at cornerback with Riley Moss returning. Patrick Surtain II should also be back soon. Bo Nix will need to find his experienced receivers downfield and take advantage of a Cardinals secondary missing Andrew Wingard and Will Johnson, with several other starters nursing injuries. Look for J.K. Dobbins to keep Denver’s offense balanced and on schedule, creating opportunities for Nix to connect on explosive plays downfield. Take the Broncos.

NFL
Lions -3.5 over Packers (loss)
Rotation #470 / 4:25 PM ET

The Packers got good news today with Josh Jacobs’s activation, but Green Bay is still missing several key receivers and has depth concerns in the trenches on both sides of the ball. The Lions have also been hit hard by injuries along the line of scrimmage, preventing them from reaching their full potential early in the season. However, Detroit is getting healthier coming out of its bye week, with key offensive linemen returning to the lineup. The Lions have the size and experience up front to open running lanes for Jahmyr Gibbs while keeping the pocket clean for Jared Goff to find his talented receivers downfield. Detroit should have the advantage at the point of attack on both sides of the ball, allowing the Lions to control the trenches, dictate the tempo, and ultimately control the game. Take the Lions.