Picks for 10/5/23
NFL
8:15 PM EST
Rotation #305-306
Bears/Commanders Over 44.5 (win)
Both quarterbacks had the best games of their careers last week. Justin Fields played excellent for most of the game against Denver, and Sam Howell played great against the Eagles. Both teams lost games they could have won, so they are relieved to return to the field. Washington should win this game, but I can’t bank on a rookie QB to win by more than 6 points on a short week. The total is best in this scenario because Washington’s offensive line should be able to contain the weak Bears’ defensive line and pick apart the banged-up Bear’s defensive secondary. Sam Howell will find wide-open Terry McLaurin, Curtis Samuel, and Jahan Dotson all night. Tight end Logan Thomas should find mismatches as well. The Bears should run the ball with Khalil Herbert and have a balanced attack with their receivers. Cole Kmet is an excellent tight end, and Darnell Mooney and DJ Moore should be able to beat the Washington secondary that needs more confidence. Take the Over.