Blog

College Basketball
1:30 PM EST
Rotation # 775-776
Montana/Wisconsin Over 152.5 (loss)
Wisconsin is looking to return to its grove after a mind-boggling, awful shooting performance in the BIG 10 Title Game. The Badgers drew a Montana team that is not good defensively. Wisconsin needs to use its size advantage and attack all day. Montana isn’t a very scrappy team when it comes to forcing turnovers, while the Badgers protect the ball and will make all their offensive possessions count. John Tonje is a three-point shooting machine and should get the green light to fire away at will. Wisconsin doesn’t generate many turnovers on the defensive end, so I expect the Grizzlies, led by Money Williams and Joe Pridgen, to score high-percentage shots. Both head coaches, Travis DeCuire and Greg Gard, have been with their respective programs for over a decade and will have their teams ready to go. Look for both teams to do enough to make it a high-scoring game. Take the Over.

College Basketball
2:50 PM EST
Rotation # 754
Auburn -32.5 over Alabama State (loss)
Today’s game is the most significant talent mismatch out of the 32 games played on Thursday and Friday. Interestingly, Las Vegas also made the Tigers the most considerable favorite on the board. Alabama State did a great job coming from behind in the play-in-game and is a confident team, but the apparent talent gap is hard to overlook. The Hornets shoot a low percentage of their regular shots and are not a team that will move the ball well. The offensive philosophy for the Hornets is to jack up many three-point attempts and abandon the paint area. Alabama State’s problem is that Auburn has an excellent three-point defense, and their clear size advantage will make it challenging for the Hornets to shoot comfortably. It’s one thing to score at will in the SWAC and another to do it consistently against a great defense. Auburn lost in this first round last year and will not take their foot off the gas. The Tigers have outstanding bench production that won’t let up in the second half. Both teams play in conferences on the polar ends of the college basketball world. The Tigers should get a monster victory when the final horn sounds. Take Auburn.

College Basketball
6:50 PM EST
Rotation # 760
Tennessee -18.5 over Wofford (loss)
If you like fast-action basketball, this is a game you want to avoid watching. Both teams run similar offensive systems at a snail’s pace. Wofford was only 10-8 in the Southern Conference this season as the top teams choked, and the Terriers took advantage in the conference tournament. I am not saying they don’t deserve to be in the tournament, but they aren’t the most deserving based on their overall work. I credit them for winning when it matters. The Vols are not the best offensive team, but they have a size advantage and play smart with the basketball. The Terriers won’t be able to force enough turnovers to make up for the talent gap. If Tennessee gets a big lead, it will be tough for Wofford to make a comeback. The Terriers are a great three-point shooting team, but guess who has the best three-point defense in college basketball? Vols guard Zakai Zeigler is the best floor general on the court and will find his teammates for open buckets. The Vols are a mature team that endured a brutal schedule in the best conference in baseball. Rick Barnes will have his team ready to advance to the next round. Take Tennessee. 

College Basketball
7:10 PM EST
Rotation # 750
Kansas -5.5 over Arkansas
John Calipari did a decent job in his first year with the Arkansas program, but the injury bug has hit this team very hard. Kansas has a lot of flaws and is far from the program they once were, but Bill Self is a great coach who will find a game plan to exploit the Razorback’s weaknesses. Arkansas is a poor offensive rebounding team, and their best offensive rebounder, Adou Thiero, is out. Thiero is the team’s leading scorer. Freshman sensation Boogie Fland was the team’s leading scorer before he went down with a hand injury and needed surgery in January. Fland will play today, as it seems Calipari has no choice. Bringing back a player who has been out for so long also has a trickle-down effect on role players who have stepped up and will be back on the bench. It’s hard as a coach to juggle playing time. The Razorbacks don’t have a deep enough bench to compensate for injured talent. The Jayhawks are a good defensive team and should grab defensive rebounds, limiting Arkansas’s chance attempts. Hunter Dickinson must show up to defend the paint in addition to his offense. We are not so much betting on the Jayhawks as we are wagering against Arkansas. Anything is possible in March, but not being at full strength is never a good recipe. Bill Self makes 11 million dollars annually and will get a lot of heat if he can’t create favorable mismatches. Take Kansas.

College Basketball
7:35 PM EST
Rotation # 766
Missouri -5.5 over Drake (loss)
Drake’s coach, Darian Devries, bolted for West Virginia and left the program in shambles. 43-year-old Ben McCollum showed up with a roster full of D2 players and, predicted by nobody, dominated the Missouri Valley Conference. The Bulldogs are getting a lot of hype as they are the “best” scoring defense in college basketball. The Bulldogs are also the slowest-moving offense in college basketball, so it’s hard to measure how good they are accurately opposed to if they ran at an average tempo. Fewer offensive possessions equals less for the opponent. Drake didn’t play a demanding non-conference schedule, so today’s game will be their most formidable opponent. Missouri head coach Dennis Gates did a spectacular job turning around a team that won zero conference games a season ago to ten wins this season and is now a respectable SEC program. The Tigers have a size advantage and will score points on the fastbreak. Drake struggles to create fastbreak points and is a lousy three-point shooting team. It’s one thing to have a set offense in the Missouri Valley playing against lesser competition and another against a scrappy team from the SEC. The Tigers have a great bench, so it would be wise to try to get the Drake starters into a little foul trouble. I don’t know if I buy the hype that a bunch of Division 2 transfers can compete against SEC competition. Retaining top-level talent in smaller conferences in the new age of NIL money is hard, so look for the Tigers to up the pace and challenge the Drake defense. Take Missouri.