Picks for 12/11/25
8:00 PM EST
Rotation # 678
Iowa State -11.5 over Iowa (loss)
Ben McCollum is trying to build an identity in his first year as Iowa’s head coach. Still, I don’t see a team of Drake transfers, none with power conference starting experience, upsetting a prepared Cyclones squad. Iowa State’s experience, size, athleticism, and Tamin Lipsey’s playmaking provide a clear edge over Iowa’s slow-paced style, which may frustrate opponents but rarely sparks comebacks. If the defense can’t win games, they won’t win. Freshman guard Killyan Toure has made an immediate impact for the Cyclones. Joshua Jefferson powers his way to baskets, and Milan Momcolvic’s shooting makes him a threat from deep. The Hawkeyes lack athleticism and will struggle to score against teams with a physical advantage. Take Iowa State.
NFL
8:15 PM EST
Rotation # 452
Bucs -4.5 over Falcons (loss)
The Tampa Bay Bucs are still in the driver’s seat to make the playoffs, but a loss tonight would turn their odds into a coin flip down the stretch. The storyline will be Jalen McMillan and Mike Evans returning from the injured list. Tampa needs a win, and most likely wouldn’t be bringing both players back prematurely if it weren’t out of pure necessity. In my opinion, it’s a little bit of window dressing, as tight end Cade Otton is out tonight and Tampa is starting to get thin at the skilled positions. Cody Mauch is on IR, and just this week, Ben Bredeson has joined him, leaving the offensive line a bit vulnerable with two opening day starters missing. Tampa was stunned at home in an awful loss against the Saints. Saints QB Tyler Shough ran for 8 yards per carry and had two rushing touchdowns. I am almost 100 percent confident that 37-year-old Kirk Cousins doesn’t have that kind of mobility in his bag of tricks. In the first meeting, Tampa won a close Week 1 road game against Michael Penix Jr., who was the starting QB before a knee injury. Backup QB Kirk Cousins is not a mobile quarterback at this stage in his career, and the defense knows that. To me, this is the key to the football game, as the Bucs can traditionally try to stop the running game and not have to worry as much about the quarterback beating them with his legs. It gives a defense an advantage, with an extra defender able to cheat his eyes elsewhere. Tampa is already good at slowing down opposing running backs. Drake London is not active. Kyle Pitts is questionable to play with a knee injury and has not practiced this week. Ray-Ray McCloud is another receiver who played in the prior meeting but is no longer with the team. I do believe the Bucs can again focus on slowing down Bijan Robinson, and if they do, they should win the football game. The Falcons are missing depth in the secondary, so I expect Baker Mayfield to take advantage of a crucial must-win game at home. The return of McMillan and Evans will help spread the field for other, healthier receivers to find room to create offense. The game plan should be simple: force Kirk Cousins to beat you with his arm with a short-handed receivers room. Run the football, take shots when presented, don’t beat yourself. Take advantage of a football team that has been a mess in the special teams department. Easier said than done, but Tampa must take advantage of it. Take the Bucs.