Picks for 9/29/24
NFL
1:00
Rotation # 264
Falcons -3 over Saints (loss)
Saints offensive coordinator Klint Kubiak looked like a genius the first two weeks of the year, as they scored a touchdown on almost every drive. Maybe it was a case of beginner’s luck? New Orleans’s offensive line will be without Cesar Ruiz, meaning Derek Carr is not used to playing with the guys in front of him. New Orleans has a lot of injuries at receiver, and Alvin Kamara is not at full strength. The Falcons have looked solid under new head coach Raheem Morris, who brings a defensive approach to each game. Atlanta QB Kurt Cousins is a veteran QB who can spread the ball around. Atlanta has improved on the defensive end, as they have plenty of talent and depth to get after Derek Carr. Take the Falcons.
NFL
1:00
Rotation # 265
Steelers -2.5 over Colts (loss)
Colts offensive linemen Ryan Kelly and Braden Smith didn’t practice Friday, so there could be rotational issues upfront. On the defensive side, Kwity Paye is out, and Tyquan Lewis is questionable. It will be challenging for the Colts to generate a pass rush. Steelers running back Najee Harris looks to loosen up the defense enough for QB Justin Fields to find his targets downfield. The Colts have already been without JuJu Brents for most of the year, and today, Kenny Moore will miss the game. There is room for Pittsburgh to attack in the secondary. The Steelers will try to stop the run and bait the young Anthony Richardson into mistakes. Take the Steelers.
NFL
1:00
Rotation # 267-268
Jaguars/Texans Over 44.5 (loss)
Sometimes, the best way to wager is to keep it simple until it’s not. The Jaguars defense switched to a 4-2-5 defense in the offseason under new defensive coordinator Ryan Nielsen. It’s been a disaster. Jacksonville is hurting at linebacker and can’t get on the same page. Texans QB CJ Stroud likes to throw the ball and will get more shots today as his running backs are hurting. Houston has so many targets that will find gaps in the Jacksonville defense. Jags quarterback Trevor Lawrence played poorly last week and needs to get it together, as does their experienced offensive line. There is no reason a familiar group with over 400 career combined NFL starts should be playing as out of sorts as they have. Look for both teams to go back and forth and for this to be a high-scoring game. Take the Over.
NFL
1:00
Rotation # 269
Vikings +2.5 over Packers (win)
Jourdan Love should return today for the Packers, but I don’t know if that’s a good thing, as Malik Willis did a great job in the backup role. The Vikings’ defense will look to knock Love out again. Sam Darnold has done a spectacular job in his first year as a Viking. Minnesota is a balanced attack with an excellent running game, great receivers, and a solid offensive line. Green Bay could be without Jaire Alexander in the secondary, leaving them extremely thin at cornerback. The Packers’ new defensive coordinator, Jeff Hafley, could have his hands full. Take the Vikings.
NFL
1:00
Rotation # 274
Bears -3 over Rams (win)
The Rams are coming off a huge win last week, while the Bears lost. It’s interesting seeing Chicago as a solid three-point favorite. I do believe Vegas set this line to get more Rams action. Public perception is high on Los Angeles because they just beat the 49ers. They were lucky as they stole the game late, but a win is a win. It’s tough to go on the road with offensive line issues and not having much depth on defense. Chicago should win in the trenches. If there ever were a game that would get Bears QB Caleb Williams going, it would be this game. The Rams lack a legitimate pass rusher, so the Bears should be able to put up points. Los Angeles will miss Cooper Kupp, Puka Nacua and Tyler Higbee on the road and are itching to get them back in the lineup. Matthew Stafford will be under pressure throughout the game. Take the Bears.
NFL
1:00
Rotation # 285
Chiefs -7 over Chargers (push)
Chargers head coach Jim Harbaugh faces a tough challenge today against a legendary Chiefs coaching staff. The Chargers are without Rashawn Slater and Joe Alt on the offensive line. Who will protect the edges? The Chiefs pass rushers are licking their chops. Los Angeles is without Joey Bosa and Derwin James on defense. The Chiefs offensive line should protect Patrick Mahomes and give him time to connect downfield with his speedy receivers. Sofi Stadium doesn’t have the best fan base, so it’s not an actual road game, as Kansas City fans travel well. The Chargers injuries justify Kansas City being such big favorites on the road. Take the Chiefs.