Picks for 9/27/26
NFL
Commanders +8.5 over Seahawks (win)
Rotation #462 / 1:00 PM EST
Rain and wind gusts over 25 mph could make this a messy game in Landover. Seattle is used to rough weather, but I still question whether the Seahawks should be such big favorites with Sam Darnold back after his Week 1 injury, a new offensive coordinator, and a running game that moved on from Kenneth Walker. The Commanders may be on their second-string QB, but Marcus Mariota has wheels, and Washington has decent running backs in Jacory Crockett-Merritt and Rachaad White. Passing might not be ideal for either team today, but Washington does have experienced players. Washington knows its playoff odds drop sharply if it starts the year 0-3. Tight game, sloppy conditions. Take the Commanders.
Commanders +8.5 over Seahawks (win)
Rotation #462 / 1:00 PM EST
Rain and wind gusts over 25 mph could make this a messy game in Landover. Seattle is used to rough weather, but I still question whether the Seahawks should be such big favorites with Sam Darnold back after his Week 1 injury, a new offensive coordinator, and a running game that moved on from Kenneth Walker. The Commanders may be on their second-string QB, but Marcus Mariota has wheels, and Washington has decent running backs in Jacory Crockett-Merritt and Rachaad White. Passing might not be ideal for either team today, but Washington does have experienced players. Washington knows its playoff odds drop sharply if it starts the year 0-3. Tight game, sloppy conditions. Take the Commanders.
NFL
Giants -2.5 over Titans (win)
Rotation #468 / 1:00 PM EST
Robert Saleh returns to the Meadowlands in a setting he knows well after his time with the Jets in 2023. Offensive coordinator Brian Daboll is back on the opposite sideline after serving as the Giants’ head coach last year. One thing is true: He is no Jon Gruden facing his former team. Another interesting tidbit: The Giants’ new defensive coordinator, Dennard Wilson, was the Titans’ coordinator last year. Tennessee looked great last week; a lot of that was due to the heat and Philadelphia’s self-inflicted mistakes. Today in New Jersey, it will be rainy, with heavy winds gusting over 25 mph. The Titans are banged up at running back, with Tyjae Spears limited by an ankle injury. Outside of Tony Pollard, no one scares you. The Giants have more viable options in their backfield, led by Cam Skattebo. New York has a massive size advantage over the Tennessee front seven, averaging over 70 pounds more per man. The Giants have the experience edge in the trenches and should win by being the more physical team in less-than-ideal conditions. Take the Giants.
Giants -2.5 over Titans (win)
Rotation #468 / 1:00 PM EST
Robert Saleh returns to the Meadowlands in a setting he knows well after his time with the Jets in 2023. Offensive coordinator Brian Daboll is back on the opposite sideline after serving as the Giants’ head coach last year. One thing is true: He is no Jon Gruden facing his former team. Another interesting tidbit: The Giants’ new defensive coordinator, Dennard Wilson, was the Titans’ coordinator last year. Tennessee looked great last week; a lot of that was due to the heat and Philadelphia’s self-inflicted mistakes. Today in New Jersey, it will be rainy, with heavy winds gusting over 25 mph. The Titans are banged up at running back, with Tyjae Spears limited by an ankle injury. Outside of Tony Pollard, no one scares you. The Giants have more viable options in their backfield, led by Cam Skattebo. New York has a massive size advantage over the Tennessee front seven, averaging over 70 pounds more per man. The Giants have the experience edge in the trenches and should win by being the more physical team in less-than-ideal conditions. Take the Giants.
NFL
Chiefs -9.5 over Dolphins (win)
Chiefs-Dolphins Over 45.5 (loss)
Rotation #471 / 1:00 PM EST
Patrick Mahomes has been reborn now that he has a talented running back in Kenneth Walker behind him. A well-balanced Chiefs attack takes the pressure off the quarterback and makes them tough to stop. The Dolphins’ defense might be one of the weaker units we have seen in over a decade. Miami can’t generate pressure or sacks, and the secondary would be backups on just about every other team. In perfect conditions in Miami, it’s hard not to keep attacking this total until Vegas adjusts. The 49ers scored a touchdown on every meaningful drive last week, as the Dolphins had no answer. The Chiefs have another experienced group of receivers who should have no problem creating separation. Miami has a size advantage on offense, but can Malik Willis take advantage? Miami’s game plan last week wasn’t the best; the Dolphins were passive and played like they were up big. Jeff Hafley has to let his quarterback take chances. Kansas City is too experienced on both sides of the ball and should turn mistakes into points. Take the Chiefs. Take the Over.
Chiefs -9.5 over Dolphins (win)
Chiefs-Dolphins Over 45.5 (loss)
Rotation #471 / 1:00 PM EST
Patrick Mahomes has been reborn now that he has a talented running back in Kenneth Walker behind him. A well-balanced Chiefs attack takes the pressure off the quarterback and makes them tough to stop. The Dolphins’ defense might be one of the weaker units we have seen in over a decade. Miami can’t generate pressure or sacks, and the secondary would be backups on just about every other team. In perfect conditions in Miami, it’s hard not to keep attacking this total until Vegas adjusts. The 49ers scored a touchdown on every meaningful drive last week, as the Dolphins had no answer. The Chiefs have another experienced group of receivers who should have no problem creating separation. Miami has a size advantage on offense, but can Malik Willis take advantage? Miami’s game plan last week wasn’t the best; the Dolphins were passive and played like they were up big. Jeff Hafley has to let his quarterback take chances. Kansas City is too experienced on both sides of the ball and should turn mistakes into points. Take the Chiefs. Take the Over.
NFL
Cardinals +7.5 over 49ers
Rotation #481 / 4:05 PM EST
The Cardinals head into Santa Clara looking to shake off last week’s miserable home performance against the Seahawks. The 49ers went wire to wire as expected against the Dolphins. Arizona has a couple of advantages today. The Cardinals have a good size advantage on their offensive line against a San Francisco defensive line that looks like a mash unit just three weeks into the season. The Cardinals also have huge receivers, with an almost 4-inch-per-man size advantage over the 49ers’ secondary. The real key is in the trenches. Arizona must capitalize on the 49ers’ injuries. New 49ers defensive coordinator Raheem Morris has his work cut out for him, juggling players to field a team. The Bay Area could see decent wind gusts this afternoon. The Cardinals need to challenge San Francisco in the trenches. Look for a closer-than-expected game. Take Arizona.
Cardinals +7.5 over 49ers
Rotation #481 / 4:05 PM EST
The Cardinals head into Santa Clara looking to shake off last week’s miserable home performance against the Seahawks. The 49ers went wire to wire as expected against the Dolphins. Arizona has a couple of advantages today. The Cardinals have a good size advantage on their offensive line against a San Francisco defensive line that looks like a mash unit just three weeks into the season. The Cardinals also have huge receivers, with an almost 4-inch-per-man size advantage over the 49ers’ secondary. The real key is in the trenches. Arizona must capitalize on the 49ers’ injuries. New 49ers defensive coordinator Raheem Morris has his work cut out for him, juggling players to field a team. The Bay Area could see decent wind gusts this afternoon. The Cardinals need to challenge San Francisco in the trenches. Look for a closer-than-expected game. Take Arizona.
NFL
Saints -3.5 over Raiders
Rotation #484 / 4:25 PM EST
The 2-0 Las Vegas Raiders are on the road with a new coaching staff to face a Saints staff intact from last year. The Saints have the trench experience edge and will look to derail the Raiders’ hot start. Vegas has looked good early and could bring Brock Bowers back into the mix this afternoon. The Saints will look to get Trevor Etienne and Alvin Kamara going behind an offensive line with a size advantage over the Vegas front seven. Kwity Paye has been ill this week and might not be at full strength. The Saints can focus more on slowing down Maxx Crosby. New Orleans has been competitive against two outstanding teams this year. Tyler Shough is coming into his own, and his ability to escape the pocket and pick up yards is a real asset. Take the Saints.
Saints -3.5 over Raiders
Rotation #484 / 4:25 PM EST
The 2-0 Las Vegas Raiders are on the road with a new coaching staff to face a Saints staff intact from last year. The Saints have the trench experience edge and will look to derail the Raiders’ hot start. Vegas has looked good early and could bring Brock Bowers back into the mix this afternoon. The Saints will look to get Trevor Etienne and Alvin Kamara going behind an offensive line with a size advantage over the Vegas front seven. Kwity Paye has been ill this week and might not be at full strength. The Saints can focus more on slowing down Maxx Crosby. New Orleans has been competitive against two outstanding teams this year. Tyler Shough is coming into his own, and his ability to escape the pocket and pick up yards is a real asset. Take the Saints.