Picks for 9/24/23
1:00 PM EST
Titans/Browns Under 39.5 (win)
The Browns disappointed us Monday Night against the Steelers when they gave up an interception touchdown on the first play of the game and another turnover for a touchdown at the end. We will give Deshawn Watson another shot not to cost his team points. The Browns’ running game took a massive hit with Nick Chubb going down for the year, and now they will rely on backups to run the ball. The Titans’ defense has enough skill players to shut down anything Cleveland does. Tennesse is thin at the offensive line, which will hurt them today in their pass protection. Cleveland has an excellent front seven led by Myles Garrett that will give Ryan Tannehill fits. Both Cleveland and Tennessee’s defenses are well ahead of the offenses. Look for a low-scoring game. Take the Under.
1:00 PM EST
Bills -6.5 over Commanders (win)
The Commanders had an easy first two weeks against two new coaching staffs and teams that could be better. The Bills defense is something that Commanders Quarterback Sam Howell has never seen. Buffalo is once again stacked with talent on both sides of the ball and is in a tier well above where Washington is. Josh Allen is one of the best game managers in football and has plenty of targets to throw the ball. The Buffalo running game is good, and this well-rounded team should coast from the opening kick to the final whistle. Take the Bills.
1:00 PM EST
Falcons +3.5 over Lions (loss)
The Lions will be without David Montgomery today. Jahmyr Gibbs is a good backup, but he is only a rookie. The Lions are missing two starters on their offensive line, making it harder for them to pass protect and open lanes for the running game. The Falcons are off to a 2-0 start because they have a legit defense. On offense, the Falcons have a decent offensive line, which is good news for running back Bijon Robinson. Atlanta Quarterback Desmond Ridder is in his second season and needs to leap out of the category he currently is in. Many people look at what Detroit did to the Chiefs and will be them for that reason. The Falcons will be right in this game until the end. Take Atlanta.
4:05 PM EST
Panthers +5 over Seahawks (loss)
The Panthers are a desperate 0-2 and know that the chance of having a successful season diminishes if they start 0-3. The Panthers have a new coaching staff, but Frank Reich is an offensive guru, and backup QB Andy Dalton will get the start for the injured Bryce Young, an upgrade at this point in Young’s career. The Panthers have a good running back in Miles Sanders and many great targets to throw to. The Seattle Secondary is banged up, with Riq Woolen doubtful. Julian Love is not 100 percent, and Quandre Diggs is on IR. Seattle gets back Jamal Adams, but it might take time to regain his conditioning. On the offensive side, the Seahawks are dealing with a patchwork offensive line, which slows the offense’s timing down. Carolina has the defenders to keep Geno Smith in check. Look for Carolina to flirt with the upset today. Take the Panthers.
4:25 PM EST
Bears/Chiefs Over 48.5 (win)
The NFL cycles occasionally, and quarterback play is insignificant in 2023. For example, you saw a few totals under 40 last year. We have seen a dozen so far this season. Today’s game is an exception. Patrick Mahomes will look to have a field day against the Bears injured secondary. Mahomes and his receivers have yet to break out, but today is the day. Look for the Chiefs to be well-balanced with their running and passing today. Justin Fields has a tremendous upside, but the Bears need him to get out of the pocket and run. Chicago has a good run game and will use it to set up the pass. The Bears can learn from the Lions with their game plan to score against the Chiefs. Look for Kansas City to get out to a big lead and for Chicago to stay in striking distance. It’s a perfect day for football at Arrowhead. Both teams should do enough to make it a high-scoring game. Take the Over.
8:20 PM EST
Steelers +3 over Raiders (win)
Pittsburgh finally gets a break from playing an elite defense after facing the 49ers and the Browns in the season’s first two weeks. Kenny Pickett has shown improvement in a few areas and needs to put that to work against the Raiders. Najee Harris will look to run wild behind a massive Steelers offensive line. Las Vegas brought in QB Jimmy Garoppolo from the 49ers and has great offensive players led by a solid offensive line. Las Vegas will be a much better team than in the past. The Steelers have an elite defense with pro-ball talent in all three levels. Because of this, Pittsburgh will never be out of a game. It’s a given that the Pittsburgh defense will score or set up their offense to score touchdowns. The wrong team is favored. Take Pittsburgh.