College Football
Baylor/Auburn Over 59.5 (loss)
Rotation #209–210 | 3:30 PM EST

Every new season brings variables such as coaching and scheme changes, along with significant roster turnover. Wagering on totals can be especially difficult early in the year because offenses haven’t had live-game reps, which can lead to mistakes like goal-line fumbles and missed kicks. For this total, the edge is tempo and offensive-line size: both teams should play fast, create more possessions, and generate favorable matchups up front.

Baylor played at a frantic pace last season and brings back offensive coordinator Jake Spavital. Auburn’s new coaching staff comes over from South Florida, where it also operated at a fast pace. Tigers head coach Alex Golesh will look to ramp up the tempo with dual-threat quarterback Byrum Brown, who averaged 84 rushing yards per game last season. Auburn lost considerable receiving talent, but Brown enters the season with established chemistry with starting receivers Jeremiah Koger, Keshaun Singleton, and tight end Jonathan Echols from their time together at South Florida. DJ Lagway takes over at quarterback for Baylor. Although Lagway isn’t primarily known for his dual-threat ability, we will likely see him use his legs more frequently this season.

Both teams have plenty of defensive talent, and I normally wouldn’t wager on an over set this high without picking on depleted units. However, the expected tempo should create additional possessions for each offense, which is the main reason to play this total. The defenses could also contribute by forcing turnovers and setting up short fields. Beyond the pace, both offensive lines have a significant height advantage over the opposing front sevens despite breaking in several new starters. Their size can make running backs harder for defenders to locate as they hit the gaps.

Both backfields have plenty of talent. Auburn’s Jeremiah Cobb will look to run wild, while former Baylor running back Bryson Washington, who led the Bears in rushing last season, joins the Tigers and will look to make an impact against his former team. Baylor will also be playing its first game in a new defensive scheme under first-year defensive coordinator Joe Klanderman. A breakdown in coverage or two would be nice. Auburn’s large receivers will have a considerable size advantage over Baylor’s secondary. That should create favorable one-on-one matchups while also helping the Tigers block on the perimeter and downfield.

Auburn also has an excellent field-goal kicker in Alex McPherson, while Rayshawn Pleasant is dangerous in the return game. Both offenses should use their size and tempo to create favorable matchups, and more possessions typically lead to more scoring opportunities. Weather won’t be a concern, as the game will be played indoors at Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta. We will take the first week card nice and light and get a good look at every team before we open things up. Take the Over.