Picks for 9/28/24
NOON EST
Rotation # 151
Oklahoma State +5.5 over Kansas State (loss)
Oklahoma State is a generous underdog on the road. The Cowboys won the regular season matchup last year and returned more talent on both sides of the football. The Wildcats offensive line is small and needs more experience. The Wildcats have a new offensive coordinator, and QB Avery Johnson is not someone who scares anyone yet. Oklahoma State QB Alan Bowman needs to step up his play, but he has the numbers to get necessary road victories. Running back Ollie Gordon is the best player on the field. The Cowboys have an experienced offensive line with quality depth. Cowboys coach Mike Gundy is in this 20th season with the program and should have his team ready to play. Take Oklahoma State.
College Football
4:15 PM EST
Rotation # 170
Texas -37.5 over Mississippi State (loss)
As you know, I rarely ever play games with high spreads. Too much has to go right, and in a 60-minute match, it’s unrealistic for perfection, but Texas has such a massive advantage over the Bulldogs. Mississippi State is without QB Blake Shapen and will go to an inexperienced backup. The Bulldogs are missing their top running back and have a makeshift offensive line that will be under much pressure in Austin today. Texas is the best team in the nation and by far the most complete team at this point in the year. The Longhorns will pick apart the secondary of Mississippi State, and it won’t matter who they decide to play at quarterback. Texas has an extensive offensive line that is talented and has played together for a while. The Longhorns will hit on all cylinders today. I know it’s a big ask to win by such a large margin, but if Texas plays their regular style of play, they should win by a large margin. Now and then, we roll the dice with a vast spread. The Longhorns can win by any score they want today. Take Texas.
College Football
8:00 PM EST
Rotation # 146
SMU -6 over Florida State (win)
Florida State is a long way from their dominating ACC sweep last year and has hit close to rock bottom quickly. The Seminoles got a nice win last week but will play in their first road game of the season against a sneaky, good SMU team. It’s hard to ask a team from the American Conference to switch to the ACC and compete, but coach Rhett Lashlee has done a tremendous job. Preston Stone is an outstanding QB with many targets to throw the ball to. FSU head coach Mike Norvell is in the hot seat, and I don’t know if QB DJ Uiagalelei is the answer. The Seminoles will miss the services of Roydell Williams at running back and are not too talented at receiver. The Mustangs are an explosive team, while Florida State is not. I don’t see the Seminoles mounting a comeback if they get down early. Take SMU.
College Football
8:00 PM EST
Rotation # 153
Cincinnati +3 over Texas Tech (push)
Cincinnati/Texas Tech Over 59.5 (win)
We have a two-part play, both treated as straight wagers. The Bearcats have an experienced offensive line that should be able to open up holes for the running game. Corey Kiner should have a big day on the ground for Cincinnati. Texas Tech has many key players injured on defense. Cornerback Bralyn Lux is questionable. The rest of the Red Raider’s cornerbacks are inexperienced. The Bearcats should loosen up the field enough to strike deep. Texas Tech has a great running back in Tajh Brooks, who opens up the offense just by being on the field. Behren Morton has a lot of talent at receiver and could have a big day if Josh Kelly plays. Both teams should move the ball well. I like Cincinnati a bit more in the trenches. Take Cincinnati and the Over.
