Picks for 9/21/24
NOON EST
Rotation # 311-312
Houston/Cincinnati Over 47.5 (loss)
Cincinnati has scored many points in its first three games and would be feeling great about itself if it wasn’t for the blown late lead at Pitt two weeks ago. The Bearcat defense needs work, which will be a tricky fix with their new defensive coordinator during the season. Houston has a brand new coaching staff, but quarterback Donovan Smith and much of the running game return. Duel-threat quarterbacks such as Smith are nightmares to deal with. Both teams had massive success in smaller conferences and want to make their mark on the BIG 12. The Bearcats have a veteran offensive line that can open up holes for running back Corey Kiner and allow Brendan Sorsby time to find his receivers. The Cougars got their offense going last week and will look to build on that performance against a shaky Bearcat defense. Look for a high-scoring game. Take the Over.
College Football
NOON EST
Rotation # 391
Florida -6.5 over Mississippi State (win)
Florida has already lost to two power conference teams and gets a chance to beat up on a weaker Mississippi State team with a new staff. The Bulldogs have a brand-new offensive line that will take a few weeks to gel. The key to this game is in the trenches. Florida is immense on both the offensive and defensive line and should be able to control the game. The Gators must determine if Graham Mertz or freshman sensation DJ Lagway will be the starting QB. The Gators have a lot of injuries to start the season, but in this spot, they are a superior team. One thing that stands out is the weakness of the Bulldogs’ secondary, as they deal with many injuries. Florida should have an absolute field day throwing the football. Look for the Gators to be well-balanced today and to get a much-needed victory. Take Florida.
College Football
3:30 PM EST
Rotation # 387
USC -4.5 over Michigan (loss)
Michigan got in the winner’s circle last week against a weak Arkansas State team. It’s good to see them turn the page, but we can’t forget what Texas did to the Wolverines two weeks ago in their building. Texas gave USC the blueprint they needed to follow. The Trojans are certainly no Texas, but they have improved on the defensive end under defensive coordinator D’Anton Lynn. The Trojans had two weeks to prepare for this game, and the game plan should have been simple. Use your talent against the lack of talent Michigan has on both sides of the ball. I don’t think Michigan is ready to get into a shootout with any team, let alone a Lincoln Riley-coached Trojan team. It’s hard to overcome so many quality players bolting to the NFL. Michigan is a ranked team out of respect for their accomplishments last year, but that should vanish soon. Take USC.
College Football
3:30 PM EST
Rotation # 349
Virginia Tech -3 over Rutgers (loss)
Virginia Tech was humbled the very first week of the year when they lost a neutral-site game to Vanderbilt. Defending against a quarterback like Kyron Drones, a magician with his legs, is a nightmare. The Hokies’ offensive line brings back all of its starters from a year ago and has better defenders. Rutgers QB Athan Kaliakmanis could have a better group of receivers to depend on and isn’t the most mobile of quarterbacks. If The Scarlet Knights get down, getting back in via the pass will be tough. Rutgers beat up on two inferior teams and might be overconfident heading to Blacksburg. If the Hokies can contain Kyle Monagai, they should be able to reverse the script from last year’s game. Playing in Blacksburg is always challenging for opponents. Take Virginia Tech.
College Football
5:00 PM EST
Rotation # 370
SMU +2.5 over TCU (win)
Both teams lost close games last week and are trying to get back on track. SMU returns a 3rd year coaching staff and a couple of starting quarterbacks. The Mustangs upgraded their offensive line with talent and have outstanding receivers. The Mustangs have a lot of returning defense production and are prepared to jump to the ACC. TCU is trying to find its way under new defensive coordinator Andy Avalos. The Horned Frogs had a sizeable lead last week and gave it away. TCU QB Josh Hoover isn’t very mobile, so I expect the SMU front seven to focus on one less thing. The Mustangs should play better than they did last week against BYU. Take SMU.