Free MLB Playoff Pick
Rays -1.5 Runs over Guardians +130 (loss)
Rotation #904 / 8:00 PM ET
Listed Pitchers: Rasmussen / Griffin

The Guardians’ comeback from a 0-2 series deficit to win three straight games was incredible, but it came at a cost, as their bullpen was heavily taxed in the process. Cleveland also finds itself behind the eight ball with its starting pitching heading into Game 1, while the well-rested Rays have their ace, Drew Rasmussen, taking the mound. Rasmussen has been outstanding this season, going 3-0 with a remarkable 1.06 ERA over his last three home starts, and he also dominated the Guardians during the regular season. Cleveland’s offense has improved down the stretch, but postseason baseball is a different animal. Tampa Bay has a significant edge on the mound, especially if Rasmussen can work deep into the game and limit the need for bullpen assistance. Guardians starter Foster Griffin, acquired from Washington in a midseason trade, has struggled in his recent road outings. The Rays are built to win at Tropicana Field, with a lineup well-suited to their home ballpark. If Griffin struggles early, Cleveland could find itself in a difficult position. After exhausting its bullpen in the previous series, the Guardians may be reluctant to burn through additional relief arms in a game that gets out of hand. With the rest of the series still ahead, protecting their pitching staff could become a priority. Tampa Bay has the edge in rest, starting pitching, and home-field advantage. This is the type of matchup the Rays need to capitalize on. The moneyline is a little too expensive for our liking, so we’ll take the more attractive run-line price. Take the Rays -1.5 runs at +130.