Picks for 3/22/24
College Basketball
12:15 PM EST
Rotation #764
Florida Atlantic -3.5 over Northwestern (loss)
Florida Atlantic was our Dark Horse last year, and they made it to the Final Four. The Owls lost only one player from their team last year, as they are familiar with each other. Northwestern is a good team, but they will miss players like Matthew Nicholson and Ty Berry. The Wildcats have been playing with a limited rotation and have no talent outside their starters. Northwestern is a poor rebounding team, so they can’t get fast break points. I don’t trust the Wildcats bench. Dusty May is an outstanding coach who will take his veteran team to the next round. Look for Johnell Davis to lead the Owls to victory. Take Florida Atlantic.
College Basketball
4:30 PM EST
Rotation #770
Florida -1.5 over Colorado (loss)
Florida big man Micah Handlogten had a gruesome injury last week. The public has written the Gators off, but they still have multiple players who can rebound the basketball. Colorado was weak at blocking shots, so it will be easy for the Gators to get close buckets. The Buffaloes have a weak bench, so they need to stay out of foul trouble. I don’t trust Colorado to turn teams over or protect the ball at a high rate. The Gators have an outstanding offense and have played a more rigid schedule this year. Look for Tyrese Samuel to step up as a big and clean up around the rim. Take Florida.
College Basketball
7:10 PM EST
Rotation #760
Duke -12.5 over Vermont (win)
We have noticed an enormous talent gap between the top and bottom of the tournament so far. A lot of this has to do with NIL money and top programs playing more older students. Small schools like Oakland take advantage of younger teams like Kentucky. We don’t see young teams as much. Vermont could be a better offensive team, and on defense, they won’t turn the Blue Devils over enough or generate offensive rebounds to steal possessions. If Vermont were to pull an upset, they would need Duke to play well below average. The Blue Devils’ defense is too strong for Vermont, and they should win every contested ball above the rim. The Blue Devils are a complete team, as they play tough defense and share the ball well on offense. Kyle Filipowski is too big and too strong for Vermont to handle. Take Duke.
NCAA Tournament Opening Round Underdog Pick
College Basketball
7:35 PM EST
Rotation #783
College of Charleston +9.5 over Alabama (loss)
We have won our NCAA Tournament Opening Round underdog pick in the last eight years. Let’s try to make it nine straight. Kentucky lost yesterday because they are all offense and no defense. Alabama plays the same way. Charleston can shoot the ball well and are outstanding from the three-point line. The Cougars played a weak schedule, so it might be tough to pull the upset, but they can keep it close. Both teams have deep benches, so this will be a heavy-weight fight that goes back and forth. Vegas set the total at 173.5. Charleston can shoot, not turn it over, grab offensive rebounds, and hit three-pointers so they can make a game of it. The SEC has been surprisingly weak in the tournament, meaning anything can happen. Reyne Smith is a great shooter who can get hot from the three-point line. Look for the Cougars to play down to the wire. Take Charleston.
College Basketball
9:20 PM EST
Rotation #30-4
Houston -23.5 over Longwood (win)
Houston was embarrassed by Iowa State in the BIG 12 Tournament Championship Game and is looking for a punching bag. Longwood is that bag. I am not a big fan of wagering on high spreads, but this tournament has a considerable talent gap from top to bottom. Longwood played a weak schedule and didn’t challenge themselves in the non-conference. The Lancers have never seen a team as good as Houston. Longwood can’t make up points from the three-point line as they are one of the worst at shooting three-point shots in College Basketball. These stats also came in a weak conference. If you look at a team like James Madison, they played in a weak conference with inflated numbers through the roof. Longwood wasn’t even capable of that. The Lancers are outmatched today and will struggle from start to finish. We will let the game play out, and Houston will likely do their part and blow them away. Look for LJ Cryer to have a monster game. Take Houston.