Picks for 10/17/26
College Football
Northwestern -7 over Michigan State (loss)
Rotation #129 / Noon ET
Northwestern is two weeks removed from an emotional home win over Penn State at the newly renovated Ryan Field, followed by an easy, expected win over Ball State last week. David Braun has this team heading in the right direction. No team on the planet avoids injuries. Football is a violent game, but Michigan State has been decimated, especially on the back end of its defense. The Spartans are missing several key linebackers, along with three important players in the secondary. Northwestern should exploit the mismatch up front and find running lanes for its outstanding group of running backs, while Aidan Chiles looks to connect with his receivers. Michigan State will struggle to get through this game without a bunch of missed tackles. Without experienced linebackers, the chains should keep moving all afternoon. Take Northwestern.
Northwestern -7 over Michigan State (loss)
Rotation #129 / Noon ET
Northwestern is two weeks removed from an emotional home win over Penn State at the newly renovated Ryan Field, followed by an easy, expected win over Ball State last week. David Braun has this team heading in the right direction. No team on the planet avoids injuries. Football is a violent game, but Michigan State has been decimated, especially on the back end of its defense. The Spartans are missing several key linebackers, along with three important players in the secondary. Northwestern should exploit the mismatch up front and find running lanes for its outstanding group of running backs, while Aidan Chiles looks to connect with his receivers. Michigan State will struggle to get through this game without a bunch of missed tackles. Without experienced linebackers, the chains should keep moving all afternoon. Take Northwestern.
College Football
Texas -12.5 over Florida (loss)
Rotation #174 / Noon ET
Texas is coming off an unthinkable Cotton Bowl loss to Oklahoma last week, despite being the better team for most of the game. The Longhorns have failed to put teams away a couple of times this year, and when that happens, wild bounces can change the outcome. The good news is that the Longhorns are back home against a Florida team without quarterback Aaron Philo today. Inexperienced Trammell Jones will get the start, and I am not too worried about him beating the Longhorns for 60 minutes. Texas can focus more attention on slowing down running back Jadan Baugh. The Longhorns have a size advantage on offense, with a bigger offensive line and receiving corps than Florida. Texas needs Arch Manning to get back on track. The Hollywood Smothers and Raleek Brown duo should soften up the Gators’ defense enough for Manning to find his receivers and regain his confidence. Take Texas.
Texas -12.5 over Florida (loss)
Rotation #174 / Noon ET
Texas is coming off an unthinkable Cotton Bowl loss to Oklahoma last week, despite being the better team for most of the game. The Longhorns have failed to put teams away a couple of times this year, and when that happens, wild bounces can change the outcome. The good news is that the Longhorns are back home against a Florida team without quarterback Aaron Philo today. Inexperienced Trammell Jones will get the start, and I am not too worried about him beating the Longhorns for 60 minutes. Texas can focus more attention on slowing down running back Jadan Baugh. The Longhorns have a size advantage on offense, with a bigger offensive line and receiving corps than Florida. Texas needs Arch Manning to get back on track. The Hollywood Smothers and Raleek Brown duo should soften up the Gators’ defense enough for Manning to find his receivers and regain his confidence. Take Texas.
College Football
Kansas/Kansas State Over 55.5 (win)
Rotation #199-200 / Noon ET
Kansas and Kansas State meet for the Sunflower Showdown and state bragging rights. Kansas State has the more talented roster, while Kansas is adjusting to a new coaching staff following last year’s changes. That edge matters against a Wildcats team with the more experienced quarterback in Avery Johnson and a talented group of running backs and receivers. If the Wildcats had a veteran offensive line, which they don’t, their offense would be as dangerous as any in the nation. Kansas has a young quarterback in Isaiah Marshall, but the Jayhawks will look to establish the running game behind former Kansas State running back Dylan Edwards, which should open up the passing attack. Kaleb Patterson is a late scratch for the Wildcats, giving Kansas more opportunities to take shots downfield. Both teams should do enough offensively to make this a high-scoring affair. Take the Over.
Kansas/Kansas State Over 55.5 (win)
Rotation #199-200 / Noon ET
Kansas and Kansas State meet for the Sunflower Showdown and state bragging rights. Kansas State has the more talented roster, while Kansas is adjusting to a new coaching staff following last year’s changes. That edge matters against a Wildcats team with the more experienced quarterback in Avery Johnson and a talented group of running backs and receivers. If the Wildcats had a veteran offensive line, which they don’t, their offense would be as dangerous as any in the nation. Kansas has a young quarterback in Isaiah Marshall, but the Jayhawks will look to establish the running game behind former Kansas State running back Dylan Edwards, which should open up the passing attack. Kaleb Patterson is a late scratch for the Wildcats, giving Kansas more opportunities to take shots downfield. Both teams should do enough offensively to make this a high-scoring affair. Take the Over.
College Football
Virginia/SMU Over 51.5 (loss)
Rotation #203-204 / Noon ET
College football has produced a couple of surprises this year, and Virginia is one of them, but not in the way you would hope. The Cavaliers finished 11-3 last season, and although they’re 4-2 and in decent shape, they haven’t fully taken advantage of their talent, especially on defense. That matters here, given some mind-blowing losses and a near-loss to inferior competition last week. SMU quarterback Kevin Jennings should find opportunities to connect with his talented receivers and attack a Cavaliers secondary missing a few key players. Kendrick Raphael is a talented running back who should keep Virginia’s defense honest. Cavaliers quarterback Beau Pribula is a dual-threat quarterback playing behind one of the nation’s most experienced offensive lines, which should give him time to get the ball downfield. With sunny skies in Dallas this afternoon, both teams should do enough to make this a high-scoring game. Take the Over.
Virginia/SMU Over 51.5 (loss)
Rotation #203-204 / Noon ET
College football has produced a couple of surprises this year, and Virginia is one of them, but not in the way you would hope. The Cavaliers finished 11-3 last season, and although they’re 4-2 and in decent shape, they haven’t fully taken advantage of their talent, especially on defense. That matters here, given some mind-blowing losses and a near-loss to inferior competition last week. SMU quarterback Kevin Jennings should find opportunities to connect with his talented receivers and attack a Cavaliers secondary missing a few key players. Kendrick Raphael is a talented running back who should keep Virginia’s defense honest. Cavaliers quarterback Beau Pribula is a dual-threat quarterback playing behind one of the nation’s most experienced offensive lines, which should give him time to get the ball downfield. With sunny skies in Dallas this afternoon, both teams should do enough to make this a high-scoring game. Take the Over.
College Football
LSU -17.5 over Mississippi State (win)
Rotation #206 / Noon ET
The Lane Kiffin experience is off to a rough start for LSU fans. The Tigers already have two losses, including an overtime defeat at Kentucky last week. The good news is that LSU has lost to two quality football teams. Mississippi State already has more conference wins this year than last, but the Bulldogs are severely short-handed heading into this afternoon’s road contest. Quarterback Kamario Taylor and top running back Fluff Bothwell are both listed as doubtful, potentially leaving the Bulldogs without their two most important offensive weapons. Without Taylor’s dual-threat ability and Bothwell’s production on the ground, LSU could focus on shutting down the running game and forcing the backup quarterback to earn everything. It’s hard to win on the road, and even harder when you’re potentially missing QB1 and RB1. The Tigers will look to establish their ground game with a host of talented running backs, opening up the playbook for Sam Leavitt. When you’re laying a massive number, you have to sit back, let the game play out, and hope there aren’t any crazy bounces. It’s hard to envision the Bulldogs putting together multiple sustained drives if both offensive stars are unavailable. The Tigers need a punching bag to get back on track, and this is an opportunity to take advantage of the Bulldogs’ misfortunes. Take LSU.
LSU -17.5 over Mississippi State (win)
Rotation #206 / Noon ET
The Lane Kiffin experience is off to a rough start for LSU fans. The Tigers already have two losses, including an overtime defeat at Kentucky last week. The good news is that LSU has lost to two quality football teams. Mississippi State already has more conference wins this year than last, but the Bulldogs are severely short-handed heading into this afternoon’s road contest. Quarterback Kamario Taylor and top running back Fluff Bothwell are both listed as doubtful, potentially leaving the Bulldogs without their two most important offensive weapons. Without Taylor’s dual-threat ability and Bothwell’s production on the ground, LSU could focus on shutting down the running game and forcing the backup quarterback to earn everything. It’s hard to win on the road, and even harder when you’re potentially missing QB1 and RB1. The Tigers will look to establish their ground game with a host of talented running backs, opening up the playbook for Sam Leavitt. When you’re laying a massive number, you have to sit back, let the game play out, and hope there aren’t any crazy bounces. It’s hard to envision the Bulldogs putting together multiple sustained drives if both offensive stars are unavailable. The Tigers need a punching bag to get back on track, and this is an opportunity to take advantage of the Bulldogs’ misfortunes. Take LSU.
College Football
Houston -4.5 over Oklahoma State (loss)
Rotation #152 / 7:30 PM ET
We touched on surprises across college football earlier, and Oklahoma State might be the biggest, with a 4-1 start that includes a win over Oregon. We’ve since learned that Oregon isn’t as great as it once was, but a team coming off a 1-11 season with a brand-new coaching staff and a roster full of transfers beating a powerhouse was still impressive. Houston went 10-3 last year, including 6-3 in the Big 12, and Willie Fritz has done an excellent job coaching this team. Conner Weigman is a veteran quarterback who can move the chains with both his arm and his legs. Eric Morris has done a fine job taking over the Cowboys program, but asking a team built around North Texas transfers to win on the road against a ranked Houston squad is a tough task. The Cougars’ veteran signal-caller should do enough on his home field, backed by a more established coaching staff, to secure the victory. Take Houston.
Houston -4.5 over Oklahoma State (loss)
Rotation #152 / 7:30 PM ET
We touched on surprises across college football earlier, and Oklahoma State might be the biggest, with a 4-1 start that includes a win over Oregon. We’ve since learned that Oregon isn’t as great as it once was, but a team coming off a 1-11 season with a brand-new coaching staff and a roster full of transfers beating a powerhouse was still impressive. Houston went 10-3 last year, including 6-3 in the Big 12, and Willie Fritz has done an excellent job coaching this team. Conner Weigman is a veteran quarterback who can move the chains with both his arm and his legs. Eric Morris has done a fine job taking over the Cowboys program, but asking a team built around North Texas transfers to win on the road against a ranked Houston squad is a tough task. The Cougars’ veteran signal-caller should do enough on his home field, backed by a more established coaching staff, to secure the victory. Take Houston.
College Football
Wisconsin +2.5 over UCLA (loss)
Rotation #185 / 7:30 PM ET
UCLA heads into tonight’s game ranked 12th but will be without quarterback Nico Iamaleava for the rest of the season, calling on Ty Dieffenbach for his first career start. UCLA will certainly miss Iamaleava’s dual-threat ability. The Bruins could also be without starting offensive lineman Jordan Davis, who is listed as doubtful. Wisconsin picked up an impressive road victory at Penn State a few weeks ago and has a size advantage along the offensive line and at receiver against UCLA’s smaller secondary. The Bruins will be without defensive back Tao Johnson, while starting cornerback Rodrick Pleasant is doubtful, giving the Badgers opportunities to attack downfield. Wisconsin will first look to establish the running game with Abu Sama, who is expected to play. The Badgers have the physical ability and a more experienced coaching staff to make a run at another road victory. Take Wisconsin.
Wisconsin +2.5 over UCLA (loss)
Rotation #185 / 7:30 PM ET
UCLA heads into tonight’s game ranked 12th but will be without quarterback Nico Iamaleava for the rest of the season, calling on Ty Dieffenbach for his first career start. UCLA will certainly miss Iamaleava’s dual-threat ability. The Bruins could also be without starting offensive lineman Jordan Davis, who is listed as doubtful. Wisconsin picked up an impressive road victory at Penn State a few weeks ago and has a size advantage along the offensive line and at receiver against UCLA’s smaller secondary. The Bruins will be without defensive back Tao Johnson, while starting cornerback Rodrick Pleasant is doubtful, giving the Badgers opportunities to attack downfield. Wisconsin will first look to establish the running game with Abu Sama, who is expected to play. The Badgers have the physical ability and a more experienced coaching staff to make a run at another road victory. Take Wisconsin.