Picks for 10/4/26
NFL
Patriots/Bills Over 49.5 (win)
Rotation #253-254 / 1:00 PM EST
The Bills are off to a 3-0 start under Joe Brady, but will the league’s youngest coach stay hot in a crucial divisional game against the Patriots? Buffalo could build early separation with a win today. New England must attack a Buffalo secondary with limited cornerback experience. Christian Benford doesn’t look like he will play today. Josh McDaniels must dial up one-on-one plays for Drake Maye to find his receivers. The Patriots have a balanced running game, which will keep the Bills defense on its heels. The Bills can do the same on offense with Joe Brady’s rushing attack and Josh Allen, who can move the sticks with his legs. Buffalo should find a few mismatches. Look for both teams to do enough to make it a higher-scoring game. Take the Over.
NFL
Jaguars/Bengals Over 51.5 (loss)
Rotation #261-262 / 1:00 PM EST
It will be a perfect day for football in Cincinnati. I like the Jaguars in this game, but they have a few banged-up cornerbacks, and the Bengals have a real size advantage at receiver today, plus a substantial offensive-line edge with a veteran unit that has played together a lot and is intact from a season ago. The Bengals should run the ball with Chase Brown enough to give Joe Burrow time to find his receivers. Trevor Lawrence is eager to play a Bengals defense that let a weak Steelers offense have its way last week. The Bengals are allowing too many yards after contact, which typically keeps the chains moving. Both teams should do enough to make this a high-scoring affair. Take the Over.
NFL
Ravens -11.5 over Titans (loss)
Rotation #268 / 1:00 PM EST
The Ravens are coming back from Brazil and will be without Trey Hendrickson this afternoon, so being double-digit favorites seems like a lot. Still, the Titans couldn’t do much on offense last week against the New York Giants, so why would they do better today? Baltimore has a more physical, experienced secondary that matches up well against the Titans’ receivers. Tennessee could have another long day if they fail to get Tony Pollard going. Over 60 minutes, the Ravens’ experience and talent should take over. Look for a double-digit win for Baltimore at home. Take the Ravens.
NFL
Vikings -10 over Dolphins (loss)
Rotation #270 / 4:05 PM EST
U.S. Bank Stadium might be the hardest place in the NFL for opponents to play. Miami is going to have a challenging time with De’Von Achane on IR because if you can’t run efficiently on the road, you don’t have a good chance to win, and you can multiply that by 10 when you are a young team like the Dolphins. I don’t trust Malik Willis to move the ball consistently against the Vikings’ experienced secondary. You hate to pick on Miami every week, but they don’t have the talent to compete at this level in the NFL, and they’ll only win against superior teams if they get a little help on special teams or with fluke turnovers. The Vikings’ receivers are an experienced bunch that will look to have their way against an inexperienced secondary. The crowd-noise factor is next level, and I am interested to see how the young, short-handed Miami team responds. Take the Vikings.
NFL
Broncos +3 over 49ers (loss)
Rotation #271/ 4:25 PM EST
Broncos +3 over 49ers (loss)
Rotation #271/ 4:25 PM EST
The Broncos did a good job of opening up the playbook last week against the Rams. The Denver fan base is all over Davis Webb, as his offensive coordinator role has been shaky to start the year. Denver must allow Bo Nix to play to his full potential. Denver’s advantage is in the trenches: the offensive line should be able to push and protect the quarterback, while the 49ers, yet again in a row, have all kinds of injuries in the front seven, including Nick Bosa. Dre Greenlaw is also questionable with a quad injury. The Broncos must use J.K. Dobbins to soften up the 49ers’ defense so they can take shots downfield with Courtland Sutton and Jaylen Waddle. Using the tight ends would be a big benefit today. The 49ers also have issues at receiver, as many players are on IR, and Mike Evans is the latest injury, as his status is in jeopardy this afternoon. Denver has team camaraderie, as they returned ten of their top eleven tacklers from a year ago and brought back every meaningful pass catcher in addition to acquiring Jaylen Waddle. Denver is the healthier team and must take advantage. Take the Broncos.