NFL
Steelers/Browns Under 38.5 (loss)
Rotation #101-102 / 8:15 PM EST

Taking low-set unders in the modern NFL is tough because one big penalty can erase good defensive play and turn it into a scoring situation with a single flag or a late hit on the quarterback. I’m not a fan of isolated-night games because it seems like every ref now works his biceps all week to show them off by throwing flags and getting TV time. Ask yourself whether you would play this game on a Sunday. In this case, the answer is yes. Both teams have young offensive lines facing experienced front sevens. Pittsburgh’s offense looked great last week, but I don’t trust them just yet. Ideally, we get a lot of jumpiness up front, leading to false starts and holding penalties. Gusty winds could make longer field-goal attempts interesting. I think the defenses have a massive advantage in this game. Sure, they could force a few turnovers for instant points, which is an under-killer, but I don’t trust either offense to maintain a consistent flow throughout the game. Look for a lower-scoring game. Take the Under.

Free MLB Playoff Pick
Braves -110 over Phillies (win)
Rotation #910 / 8:00 PM EST
Kerr/Nola (Listed Pitchers)

No Phillies fan on the globe had any hope left when Bryce Harper made a critical mistake that let the Braves take the lead late yesterday in Game Two. With just a few outs remaining before elimination, the Phillies pulled off a remarkable comeback after struggling down the stretch. It’s a weird Game Three setting: the Braves will pitch a bullpen game, likely starting with Ray Kerr and then Grant Holmes, and the Phillies will probably do the same with Aaron Nola on the mound. A couple of things favor the Braves. The most obvious is that they are at home. Atlanta has a much better bullpen, which is crucial in spots like tonight. Philadelphia hasn’t hit the ball well this month, and the Phillies haven’t been as good against left-handed pitching, so I don’t expect early offense to take the crowd out of the game. The Braves should be able to build an early lead and lean on their bullpen. Yesterday’s comeback by Philly was remarkable, but it still doesn’t let a struggling team off the hook. Take the Braves.