College Football Title Game Pick for 1/9/23
7:30 PM EST
Georgia -13.5 over TCU (WIN)
If tonight’s game were a regular season contest in September, we wouldn’t play it. TCU had a storybook season in the BIG 12 but lost the BIG 12 Championship Game. I am not taking anything away from TCU, but they played 75% of their games against the worst defenses in college football. TCU looked great against Michigan, but the Horned Frogs benefitted from lottery-like odd mishaps by Michigan. TCU has been one of the top teams in the country against the spread, and tonight are getting the most points ever in a college football final. The general public is betting on TCU as heavily as I have seen a title game. TCU was a 5-7 football team last year and has done remarkable things with Sonny Dykes in his first year with the program. TCU only has one five-star recruit and 16 four-star recruits.
Georgia has 15 five-star recruits and 53 four-star recruits. TCU runs a 3-3-5 defense that works excellently in their conference, but they have yet to see tight ends like they will see tonight. TCU QB Max Duggan has been incredible on offense and proved they can play at a high-level last week. TCU’s best running back, Kendre Miller, is severely banged up and will face a Georgia team that will take away the run and make TCU one-dimensional. Georiga should be able to take chances and intercept Max Duggan. Kirby Smart is an excellent coach looking to win Georgia back-to-back Championships. Georgia will be patient on offense and take what the defense gives them. Georgia is the better team with much better players. TCU is a cinderella story that had a great year. The sports news media is hyping this game to be close, and they all talk about TCU covering. In the last 23 years of sports handicapping, underdogs that get the bulk of the bets lose more than they win. 7 of the top 8 teams against the spread this year covered their bowl game. TCU, the last one to play, has all the money on them as massive underdogs. There will be more money bet in this game than in those games combined. Is Vegas setting the ultimate trap? If TCU and the Over cash, it would be one of the worst losses the books ever had. Georgia has the physical edge and should dominate in the trenches. Take Georgia.