Week 11 NFL Free Pick

1:00 PM EST
Rotation #455-456
Ravens -6.5 over Bengals
Ravens/Bengals over 44
The Bengals took care of Baltimore in Week 2 as AJ Green went off for 3 touchdowns in the first half.  Green is out of this game, but still 6.5 points is a lot with Flacco out of this game and Lamar Jackson making his first start.  The key to this game is the Bengals linebackers who are all banged up in this game.  Young QB’s that can run the ball give this Bengals team fits as they just are not fast enough to keep up.  Baltimore will run all over this Bengals team today.  The Bengals still have Andy Dalton who can get the ball to a Tyler Boyd or a John Ross.  I expect this team to score some points which is why I also like the Over in this game.  When the second half rolls around this Bengals Defense will be tired and that is when I expect to see that long drive or huge 60 yard run to finish this team off for good.  Could it be payback time for being knocked out of the playoffs last year on the final play?  Take the Ravens and the Over. 

4:25 PM EST
Rotation #459-460
Saints -7.5 over Eagles
Most people are betting the Eagles because of wishful thinking.  There is no physical or statistical reason to bet them.  Philly is missing every single one of their top cornerbacks this year and are thin in this secondary.  There is no way Drew Brees is going to cool off now with these conditions at home.  The Eagles have the offense to stay in this game, but they don’t have the coordinator to do so, unlike last year.  Field goals in the red zone against the Saints will get you down 28-6 really quick.  The Eagles lost to their rival Cowboys last week and I just don’t think this team has the key pieces needed to beat this team.  Philly can’t run the football which really hurts keeping Brees on the sideline.  The only way the Eagles stay in this game is a classic score for score shootout.  I just don’t see it.  Take the Saints.

1:00 PM EST
Rotation #463-464
Texans -3 over Redskins
The Redskins for a second straight year are a mess on the offensive line.  This is a team that is beating themselves before the ball is even snapped with penalties.  The amazing thing is this team is in the driver’s seat in the NFC East.  Houston has an aggressive defensive line that should put so much pressure on this patch work Redskins front.  Deshaun Watson is starting to really peak at QB for the Texans.  Look for this team to pound Lamar Miller and to be bullies on both sides of the ball.  The Redskins have not gotten much production from their WR’s, they are thin at RB and their kicker is banged up.  This could be a long day.  Take Houston.

1:00 PM EST
Rotation #465-466
Giants -3 over Bucs
Giants/Bucs Over 52.5
The Giants are the only team that has not won a game at home.  You have to win home games to fill the seats.  The NFL is a business.  The Giants have all the talent needed on offense and today get a rare break against an awful defense that gets gashed with the deep ball.  These are the afternoons you fill Odell Beckham Jr stat sheet to keep him happy.  Both teams in this game have a ton of offensive talent.  The weather today will be perfect for football and I believe we are going to see a shootout that slowly turns into a Giants blowouts.  Tampa has 500 yards of offense last week against the Redskins and only 3 points to show for it.  How does that happen?  I believe the one or two mistakes by Fitzpatrick will be the difference in this game.  Take the Giants and the Over.

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